A historic call for fossil fuel transition at COP28 and its implications for the Arctic

COP28, which concluded last week, was marked by significant historic agreements alongside criticisms that argue the absence of a sufficient short-term concrete roadmap. However, amidst these deliberations, a crucial question arises: What are the implications for the Arctic?

Against the backdrop of countries consistently falling short of their climate goals, COP28, under the UAE Consensus, has made a historic call for nations to transition away from all fossil fuels. This groundbreaking declaration marks the first time in nearly 30 years that a COP decision has explicitly addressed the need to transition away from fossil fuels.

Lack of 2030 goalposts puts ice-dependent Arctic ecosystems at risk

But the outcome fell short of the full “phase-out” which is needed to stay below 1.5 °C. The WWF Global Arctic Programme fears that the tepid COP28 language on fossil fuel emissions which does not include any near-term targets has just sealed the fate of summer Arctic sea ice.  The Arctic set yet another record in 2023 for the warmest summer surface air temperature and the Arctic sea ice extent continued to decline, with the last 17 Septembers now registering as the lowest on record.

While the COP text acknowledges that global greenhouse gas emission trajectories are not aligning with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, only a few of the necessary 2030 goalposts are set in line with IPCC science. This lack may hinder motivation to constrain emissions in this critical decade, risking global temperature rise beyond 1.5 °C. Even a temporary surpassing of the 1.5°C threshold will not merely wreak havoc on Arctic ecosystems reliant on Arctic sea ice but could potentially trigger the eventual collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the disintegration of vast expanses of Arctic near-surface permafrost.

The Arctic demands clear and ambitious short-term milestones for accountability and the delivery of the 1.5°C goal. Notably, Arctic coastal states—such as, Canada, Norway, Russia and the US—bear special responsibility as major global producers of fossil fuels and should lead the full phase-out.

COP28’s biodiversity commitments and the crucial role in Arctic conservation

COP28 also spotlighted the alignment with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The UAE Consensus urges governments to integrate nature considerations into their climate plans, bridging the gap between climate protection and biodiversity.

Recognizing the importance of the natural world and nature-based solutions is crucial for the Arctic, but recognition alone won’t halt Arctic sea ice melt. Healthy ecosystems are foundational for a biodiverse and resilient Arctic, providing livelihoods, health, and cultural identity for its four million inhabitants, many Indigenous.

WWF urges Arctic nations to be nature-positive, actively combating the intertwined challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss.

WWF urges Arctic nations to be nature-positive, actively combating the intertwined challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss. This involves setting more ambitious targets in national biodiversity action plans and implementing transformative changes across sectors. December 19th marks the one-year anniversary of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework agreement. Implementation of this framework makes an essential contribution to helping nature and people to address climate change and enables a 1.5 pathway. Countries must increase protection of nature, delivering on the historic commitment to safeguard nature in support of climate action and inclusive development.

Critical concerns call for unified, urgent and defined action post-COP28

In summary, COP28’s outcomes raise critical concerns for the Arctic’s future. The absence of clear milestones for a fast and unconditional fossil fuel phase-out is a ticking time bomb with the potential  for irreversible damage that could devastate Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous communities. As we commemorate the one-year anniversary of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the imperative is evident: Arctic nations must adopt nature-positive measures, establishing ambitious biodiversity targets and harmonizing climate and nature plans. The moment has come to preserve the delicate balance of the Arctic, ensuring both nature and climate are safeguarded for a sustainable and inclusive future. The urgency calls for unified action now.