WWF research brief highlights alarming trends in Arctic oil and gas production and emissions

A new research brief from the WWF Global Arctic Programme reveals concerning trends in Arctic fossil fuel production and emissions, highlighting how the region’s oil and gas activities continue to expand, despite growing global commitments to combat climate change. This analysis, part of WWF’s ongoing series on Arctic environmental impacts, underscores the urgent need for Arctic nations to prioritize climate action by curbing fossil fuel activities.

Key findings on Arctic fossil fuel production and emissions

According to the brief, Trends in Arctic oil and gas production and associated emission, 2023 saw a decrease in Arctic fossil fuel production by 6 per cent, primarily due to reduced output from Russia. However, Russia’s routine gas flaring increased by 10 per cent, leading to a rise in methane emissions. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, exacerbates warming effects, particularly in the sensitive Arctic environment where climate-induced changes are rapid and impactful.

With Norway’s plans for further exploration on its continental shelf, projections indicate a second peak in Arctic oil and gas production between 2035 and 2037, setting the region on a continued upward trajectory for emissions through the early 2040s. “These production trends signal a concerning disconnect between the ambition to limit global warming and the actual actions being taken in fossil fuel expansion,” said Elena Tracy, Senior Advisor, Sustainable Development, for the WWF Global Arctic Programme and author of the report.

A critical moment for global climate goals

The findings come at a pivotal moment, as 2023 witnessed both record fossil fuel usage globally and a landmark commitment at COP28 in Dubai, where world leaders pledged to transition away from fossil fuels. Yet, the WWF report indicates that no Arctic nations or major fossil fuel companies have committed to halting new developments in this ecologically sensitive region.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes the necessity for a 43 per cent reduction in global emissions by 2030 to cap warming at 1.5°C. Achieving this requires an immediate end to new oil and gas developments and exploration licenses. However, all Arctic nations have continued to issue such licenses, pushing production timelines well into the 2040s.

Recommendations for policy and industry action

WWF’s research brief calls for Arctic fossil fuel–producing nations—primarily Norway, Russia, and the United States—to align their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with net-zero strategies by setting clear milestones for reducing hydrocarbon production. Additionally, WWF urges companies operating in the Arctic to account for their total emissions, including downstream emissions (scope 3), which represent the majority of fossil fuel-related emissions.

The report also highlights the need for Russia, currently the Arctic’s largest emitter of methane from oil and gas, to address routine gas flaring and adopt stronger regulatory measures. Unlike Norway and the United States, which have methane-reducing policies in place, Russia lags in methane control—a significant factor in limiting global warming.

Safeguarding the future of the Arctic

The WWF Global Arctic Programme concludes that curbing Arctic fossil fuel expansion is essential to meeting international climate goals and protecting Arctic ecosystems. It warns that as Arctic oil and gas projects expand, they risk locking in emissions for decades, leaving stranded assets as the world pivots towards renewable energy.

“If we are to stay within safe climate boundaries, Arctic nations must prioritize halting new fossil fuel exploration,” said Elena Tracy. “With the Arctic warming up to four times faster than the global average, this is a call to action that cannot be ignored.”