Reports
Research brief | Missing the target: Fossil fuel production in the Arctic is out of step with the 1.5°C–aligned emission reduction goal
- Oil and gas
Fossil fuel production in the Arctic is expected to peak in 2040 and by 2050, the target year of reaching net zero emissions, it could be four to seven times higher than the production volumes consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
- In the absence of stronger climate policies, oil and gas production in the Arctic region is expected to continue to rise until at least the late 2030s or early 2040s. By 2050, the gap between Arctic fossil fuel production and the Paris-aligned reduction pathways could reach 700 per cent.
- In 2022, 3,177 million barrels of fossil fuels (oil and the oil equivalent of natural gas) were produced in the Arctic—about 5.5 per cent of the world’s total production that year.
- Russia is by far the biggest oil and gas producer in the Arctic, producing over 91 per cent of all Arctic-sourced oil and gas in 2022. Overall, 80 per cent of the gas and 60 per cent of the oil produced in Russia are extracted in the Arctic region.
- Even if Russia does not develop new reserves, by 2050 the expected volumes from currently producing and developed reserves will exceed the Paris-aligned targets by 200 to 300 per cent. To meet the Paris goals, Russia would need to prematurely shut down half of its currently producing oil and gas fields in the region.
