© Jenny Leonard
Arctic Conservation Forecast Initiative
The WWF Arctic Conservation Forecast Initiative aims to give conservationists a better idea what to expect when climate change transforms Arctic nature—and to offer some information about what they can and must do now to protect it.
The initiative gathers international experts from climate science, oceanography, ecology and conservation to share knowledge. They are looking at the latest projections of what Arctic climate change will mean for temperatures, snow, sea ice, glacier melt and other land and sea features in the future and trying to imagine how these changes will affect ecosystems, habitat and species.
We need to take conservation steps now that envisage where and how plants and animals will live and thrive later—after climate warming has forced them to move or adapt. For example, we can start right away to protect areas where species don’t yet live, but likely will later. Or we can protect suitable habitat “corridors” (such as north–south mountain ranges) now so that species can easily shift their ranges to survive the altered climate.
Or we might discover that we need to focus conservation efforts on existing ecological hotspots, where exceptional productivity and other life-supporting features may continue. As the Arctic heats up, these areas might become far more important to species, habitats and people.
Applying proactive solutions
For some species, such as the migratory caribou found across the North, this type of forward-thinking conservation means working to reduce threats that are not directly climate-related—such as accelerating industrial development—so that a species’ natural resilience can help it cope better with the stresses of climate change. In other words, it’s about mitigating the stresses that are under our control so species can save their adaptive capacities to respond to those we cannot.
It’s about taking most or all of the other pressures off so species have the best chance to adapt. We must make sure they have the strength to do so.
Even under the most optimistic climate change scenarios, we will not be able to save all Arctic life or all current Arctic places. So we must invest wisely—but we also have to act quickly. The changes we anticipate have already been triggered.
Check back for a report on this initiative later this year.
