Improved use of forecasts can increase the safety of Arctic shipping

As sea ice disappears, new shipping routes are opening up in the Arctic. This is making the region more appealing to a variety of industries, and could bring even more ships to Arctic waters. But freezing temperatures and the challenges involved in making accurate sea ice predictions can put vessels at risk if proper measures aren’t taken, endangering both crews and marine species. As MALTE MÜLLER and MAAIKE KNOL-KAUFFMAN explain, accurate forecast information can play a vital role in helping operators mitigate the risks of shipping in these difficult conditions.

In October 2021, more than a dozen vessels became stuck in sea ice along the Northern Sea Route in the East Siberian Sea. Because these vessels were spread across a large area with only one icebreaker nearby, it was many days before all were rescued.

The annual freeze-up happened unusually early that year, and likely caught many operators by surprise. However, state-of-the-art sea ice forecasts did predict the early freeze-up several days in advance. Could this incident have been avoided if operators had made better use of them?

Over the past decade, Arctic shipping has been increasing at a rate of 7 per cent per year. For the Northern Sea Route, this trend has been even steeper as a result of growth in the production of liquid natural gas and oil in the Yamal Peninsula of the Russian Arctic. These operations are categorized as “destination shipping” and make up the greatest share of activities along the Northern Sea Route. Destination shipping refers to shipping to and from destinations within the region.

Year-round operation poses risks

Many of these destination vessels operate year-round, including during the most hazardous months. As a result, they are increasingly exposed to extreme weather conditions and must sometimes navigate through sea ice. In fact, the amount of time ships spend in sea ice in the Arctic has roughly tripled over the past decade across the region, with most of the increase related to developments along the Northern Sea Route.

Compared to destination shipping, the number of other ships that transit through the entire Northern Sea Route is still small—but the increasing activity is becoming more evident. As a consequence of western sanctions related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been allowing an increasing number of oil tankers to transit from the Black and Baltic Seas to China through the Northern Sea Route, including—for the first time—thin-hulled, non–ice-class tankers.

The human and environmental risks related to shipping through the Northern Sea Route and other Arctic regions are significant due to the area’s dynamic (and often extreme) weather conditions, remoteness, and limited infrastructure. To regulate these risks, the International Maritime Organization developed the International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code), which came into force in 2017.

The code includes mandatory measures and recommendations to increase safety and prevent pollution. It requires operators to obtain critical information about temperature and sea ice conditions so they can assess risks in accordance with their ships’ classifications. However, it is vague on exactly what environmental information operators should include in their planning and decision-making processes. The WWF Global Arctic Programme has identified this shortcoming as a key gap in the Polar Code.

Forecasting systems and Polar Code require better integration

The October 2021 incident in the East Siberian Sea highlights how sea ice forecast information could help ship operators mitigate operational risks. Using high-quality forecasts properly when navigating Arctic waters is crucial. To promote the uptake of tailored, high-quality forecast information, better integration of the Polar Code framework with existing forecasting systems is needed.

There is already an internationally coordinated service offering meteorological warnings and forecasts in all marine areas, including the Arctic. As part of this system, tailored communication systems provide forecasts and warnings to maritime operators. But there is a need to strengthen the interplay between these frameworks to reduce the potential for human and environmental disasters in a highly challenging Arctic operating environment. This is even more important in light of the rapidly increasing activities along the Northern Sea Route and in all parts of the Arctic where maritime activity takes place in potentially hazardous conditions.

Greater harmonization of the Polar Code and forecasting systems can improve the safety of Arctic operations. The International Maritime Organization and the World Meteorological Organization, which facilitate the Polar Code and the warnings system, have crucial roles to play in enabling the better use and integration of forecast information. If we want to protect Arctic waters and the species that call them home, then we need to make Arctic shipping as safe as possible—and this is a critical step in that direction.