© Bob Wick / Bureau of Land Management Alaska / public domain
Burning money, melting ice
Arctic governments and fossil fuels
Home to some 230 drilling operations, the Arctic’s reserves have the potential to produce 240 billion barrels of oil and natural gas. NICOLAS GAULIN explains how national governments and financial institutions are giving oil and gas companies the financial, technical and legal means to accelerate the climate crisis.
In 1911, a trapper named Karkassee who came from a Dene tribe—one of the First Nations Peoples of Yukon and Alaska— was hired by the Northern Trading Company to locate the source of an oil slick that had been observed on northern Canada’s Mackenzie River. The subsequent discovery of large seeps of oil on the riverbed caught the attention of Imperial Oil, which successfully drilled its first oil well in 1920.
The site came to be known as Tłegǫ́hłı̨ in the local Slavey language, meaning “where there is oil.” More commonly known today as Norman Wells, the settlement became the remote birthplace of the Arctic oil and gas industry.
Measures to prevent oil extraction
There are several ways to prevent the extraction of fossil fuels. These include launching lawsuits to revoke land leases and drilling operations, blockading extraction sites, and passing legislation to suspend (temporarily or permanently) fossil fuel activities in a given area. The Arctic has long been the theatre of such initiatives, particularly in countries where polar fossil fuel activities are most active: Russia, the US and Norway.
From 1990 to 2021, the US was subject to 10 civil society lawsuits that challenged the permits issued for oil and gas operations in offshore Alaska. The Biden administration introduced a moratorium on drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in 2021 and then a ban on offshore drilling in the Beaufort Sea in 2023 (as an offset measure for approving the Willow Project).
Across the frozen ocean, Russia saw its oil rigs boarded by Greenpeace activists four times between 2005 and 2014. Canada and Greenland, with significantly smaller industries, had similar experiences. Canada introduced an indefinite moratorium on offshore oil and gas drilling in the Arctic in 2016. In 2021, Greenland banned offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation. It cited repeated disappointments in the output of exploratory drills, but the policy was equally motivated by environmental and climate change concerns.
Yet oil and gas operations in the Arctic have seen a resurgence in the past few years. In 2022, Russia’s Rosneft announced the discovery of a massive 82 million tonne oil deposit in the southeastern Barents Sea. A year later, Norway introduced a record number of Arctic oil and gas exploration blocks, while in the US, the Biden administration approved more than 250 new oil wells—known as the Willow project—in Alaska’s North Slope. In addition to the more than 220 sites currently operating across the Arctic, around 350 are being explored for further development by major oil giants, such as Russia’s Gazprom, the US’ ConocoPhillips, and France’s TotalEnergies.
© Danielle Brigida / Flickr
Money talks—but what is it saying?
Arctic drilling is expensive because of the region’s difficult climate and remoteness. The average Arctic oil barrel typically costs $75—far more than conventional oil, which hovered around $48.5 between 2015 and 2020. As a result, the decision to drill relies in part on capital input, anticipated market prices, and favourable regulatory circumstances. Serious investments have been secured from financial institutions, such as banks, insurance companies and investment firms. These institutions bankrolled a staggering $314 billion in loans, bonds and shares from 2016 to 2020 to the benefit of polar fossil fuel operations.
National and local governments also play critical roles in the proliferation of Arctic extraction. The activities of oil and gas companies have traditionally been supported by a variety of direct and indirect subsidies, technical assistance, and beneficial regulatory circumstances. For instance, in 2022, Russia allocated 1.4 billion roubles (roughly USD$15.5 million) to interest rate subsidies for five national oil and gas projects.
Government subsidies also lower operating costs through tax exemptions and reduced fees. For example, in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, Norway adjusted its tax regime to offer a tax break on new exploration projects and introduced tax rebates set at 100 per cent of capital expenditure for oil and gas infrastructure. In Alaska, the state government forwent USD$7 billion in oil tax credits throughout the 2010s.
Where the industry is less developed, capacity-building programmes have sought to improve the likelihood of successful oil and gas ventures. For example, prior to Greenland’s ban on oil and gas activities, its national oil company, Nunaoil, partnered with the University of Copenhagen on a research project designed, in part, to train future fossil fuel workers.
Finally, in some cases, oil-friendly political parties in power have enabled the stacking of regulatory and oversight bodies with oil and gas executives despite evident conflicts of interest. In the face of a looming electoral defeat in 2015, then-Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper prematurely renewed the terms of several National Energy Board appointees with ties to the oil and gas industry.
© Peter Prokosch / www.grida.no/resources/3566
Redirecting capital to achieve climate goals
There is bitter irony in the fact that the Lofoten Declaration, which calls for an end to fossil fuel exploration worldwide, is named after an Arctic archipelago. Arctic oil and gas extraction are expected to increase by 20 per cent over the next five years. If realized, this will exhaust almost a quarter of the remaining global carbon budget in the drive to remain below 1.5°C.
To align with the Paris Agreement and ensure a healthy environment for future generations, Arctic governments must phase out existing projects and call a halt to any new ones within their borders, both offshore and onshore. At the same time, they must pass legislation to limit financial flows in support of carbon expansionism abroad. Climate chaos must be made unprofitable.
Arctic fossil fuel projects in the works
Despite the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C, several Arctic countries have plans to go ahead with major oil and gas projects in the region over the next decade.
Fossil fuel companies around the world are already expected to produce almost double the volume of fossil fuels by 2030 that would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. But the peak of production in the Arctic is not expected to occur until a decade later. By 2050—the same year by which the Paris Agreement calls for the world to reach net-zero emissions—the gap between Arctic fossil fuel production and the 1.5°C–aligned pathway could reach 700 per cent.
More than 90 percent of Arctic fossil fuel production takes place in Russia. The other two countries investing most heavily in Arctic fossil fuel production are Norway and the US. The following three projects will lock in massive investments in fossil fuel facilities and infrastructure—money that investors could have directed toward clean energy projects.
- Russia’s Vostok Oil, controlled by Rosneft, Russia’s state-owned energy giant, includes 13 fields located in the remote and vulnerable tundra of the Taymyr Peninsula. According to Rystad estimates, Vostok Oil is poised to become Russia’s biggest-ever fossil fuel project, producing more than 8 billion barrels of oil and its equivalent between now and 2060.
- Norway’s Johan Castberg project, located offshore in the Barents Sea, comprises three oil fields with a volume of recoverable oil estimated at 400 to 650 billion barrels and an operational lifespan estimated at 30 years. It is operated by Equinor, a state-controlled public energy company. Production is slated to begin in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- The US’s Willow Project, operated by ConocoPhillips on the Alaskan North Slope, is the world’s biggest fossil fuel project in 2023 if measured in terms of greenfield capital expenditure (USD$7.8 billion).[3] With a projected production volume of 600 million barrels, the megaproject will move the energy-producing sector further away from the 1.5°C–aligned pathway.
Both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency have stated that if the world is to meet its agreed climate goals, there is no room for oil and gas reserves beyond fields that are already producing or in development. Continuing to licence new oil and gas developments poses multiple risks: to the climate, to sensitive ecosystems, and to investors, who will face stranded assets and financial losses when the world moves away from hydrocarbons.
Instead of being treated as the last frontier for fossil fuel expansion, the Arctic should become a leader in deploying clean energy, leaving its pristine ecosystems intact and mineral riches unexplored—in the ground, where they belong.
NICOLAS GAULIN is a global coordinator at the Loss & Damage Youth Coalition and has co-published several articles on fossil fuel production constraints.