Creating an Arctic alarm

Climate extremes are causing disruptions for millions of people around the world, inflicting massive economic damage, and causing strain for fragile ecosystems. But as GEMMA BALE and SARAH BOHNDIEK write, these impacts pale in comparison to what will happen if we cross an ominous “tipping point.” For example, what is the critical threshold beyond which the Greenland Ice Sheet could begin an irreversible melt (or crucial ocean circulations could fundamentally alter), with devastating consequences? And how will we know when we’re approaching that point?

When we’re regularly faced with stark warnings of extreme climate shifts reminiscent of dystopian disaster movies, it’s natural to worry about what the future holds. We know we’re in an urgent race to cut global emissions and prevent the worst impacts—and the Arctic is on the frontline.

Scientists have warned that a global temperature rise of just 2° Celsius could set off the irreversible collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet. But just how much time we have left is unclear: right now, we have very little data on when, how or even whether these events might happen. So the question arises: could we build an early warning system to notify us about looming tipping points and equip us with the data we need to confront the threat of abrupt climate change head on?

We already know it is possible to create an early warning system for certain hazardous weather events. For example, we can monitor for and warn people about potential tsunamis. But achieving an early warning system for climate tipping points is a much more complex task, and may not even be possible. Our best observational datasets are still in the early stages, while our best climate models are computationally expensive and still provide forecasts with poorly characterized uncertainties.

Bridging research gaps

At the UK’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency, we’re harnessing the power of technology to tackle these limitations, with a focus on the tipping points of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the adjacent subpolar gyre ocean circulation. Backed by £81 million (or about USD$109 million), the Forecasting Tipping Points programme aims to capitalize on innovation in low-cost distributed measurements to tackle measurement gaps in harsh environments, then unite these new sensing systems with artificial intelligence (AI)-accelerated modelling to create an early warning system that is affordable, sustainable and justified.

Why is it important to develop and deploy new sensing systems right now? Billions of Earth observations are made daily by satellites, weather stations and other sources, but there are major gaps in sensitivity, resolution and coverage. Arctic regions are chronically under-observed because of the region’s harsh conditions—the instruments must survive freezing temperatures or extreme deep-sea pressures. But we urgently need to better understand the potential melting of the ice sheet and its likely impact on the surrounding ocean circulations.

A “teams” approach

We are funding 26 teams to do just that.

For example, our GAMB2LE team is creating a modular and scalable polar observatory, putting Arctic-hardened drones to use in a unique approach to collecting aerial data. Meanwhile, our ICEBERG team is pioneering self-installing base stations to make never-before-seen measurements beneath the ice.

At the coast, the GRAIL team will examine melting and calving at marine glaciers—the key link between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the North Atlantic. While out at sea, another team is creating wind-propelled sailing robots to transform our understanding of ocean circulation.

Delivering these new sensing systems to the field to make better measurements can underpin more accurate climate predictions, but only if we invest in quality assurance standards to ensure rigorous calibration and validation. The Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) teams are fortunate to be partnering with the National Physical Laboratory to deliver on this goal.

In tandem, we are investing in state-of-the-art mathematical, physical and computational methods to characterize tipping point dynamics. The key to success is bringing together measurement and modelling teams to develop new data-driven techniques that can detect early warning signals of tipping points and help target when, where and what to observe.

Building trust—and hope

If the ARIA programme succeeds in implementing a prototype early warning system, the next question will be: when do we sound an alarm? And how do we build confidence that the early warning signals being detected are trustworthy and actionable?

The team is tackling that question. They are building digital twins of past tipping events to allow the wider programme to evaluate the performance of new technologies in detecting tipping, honing observational systems and new models.

Instead of simply facing a future of unknown risks, ARIA’s programme aims to develop an early warning system that can provide critical information for proactive adaptation and mitigation. Our programme is about harnessing cutting-edge research and innovation to offer not just data, but a greater capacity for resilience and informed hope—in the Arctic and beyond—in the face of profound environmental change.