In search of global cooperation

What will it take to phase out fossil fuels?

The forgotten Arctic: A crisis of global inaction

This story is in the The Circle 2025.02 issue.

The growing use of fossil fuels is undermining global climate goals—and it poses major risks for the Arctic and other vulnerable regions. HARRO VAN ASSELT explains why international cooperation on phasing out fossil fuels is essential for the future of the Arctic and how such cooperation can take shape.

In 2023, the Colombian government decided to stop issuing new licenses for oil and gas exploration. The decision was hailed as a major step forward for a fossil fuel-producing country.

The immediate consequence? The country’s credit rating was downgraded.

This anecdote illustrates the huge challenges ahead when it comes to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Countries, particularly developing countries, cannot and should not face these challenges alone.

Burning fossil fuels is the single largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. Further fossil fuel production jeopardizes the Paris Agreement to hold global warming to an increase of 1.5°C. Yet the world’s major fossil fuel-producing nations plan to produce more than twice as much fossil fuel as would be consistent with that goal.

As the primary driver of climate change, fossil fuel production puts climate-vulnerable regions like the Arctic at significant risk. More immediate impacts include a higher risk of oil and gas spills and harms to Indigenous communities and Arctic ecosystems. Despite this, some countries are still expanding fossil fuel production to meet growing energy needs.

The urgent need for international cooperation

The good news is that other countries are adopting measures to constrain the supply of coal, oil and gas. France and Spain no longer issue permits for new oil and gas production. Canada has established a moratorium on oil and gas development in the Arctic. In the UK, the Supreme Court recently required environmental impact assessments for new fossil fuel projects to consider the climate effects.

But to make a global difference, such measures must be complemented by international cooperation. This can help build trust that other countries are taking similar steps. Such confidence can increase governments’ willingness to take further measures. It also offers clear guidance to the private sector. Further, without international coordination, there is a real risk that countries will compete to extract the last drop of oil.

Returning to the example of Colombia, international cooperation can support mechanisms that offer the financial and technical support needed to implement measures to phase out fossil fuels. A fair approach to leaving fossil fuels in the ground requires developed countries not only to take the lead, but to support fossil fuel-dependent countries that currently lack the necessary capacity to transition away from fossil fuels.

The path forward

There are three non-mutually exclusive ways forward for international cooperation on phasing out fossil fuels: building on the UN climate regime, creating a new fossil fuel treaty, and adopting informal commitments through club-based approaches.

It took the parties participating in UN climate talks three decades to acknowledge that tackling fossil fuels is important for addressing climate change. This is a reminder that we may need to manage our expectations for the ability of this international forum to lead to the phase-out of fossil fuels. For some countries, discussing sectoral solutions to the climate problem remains taboo.

Still, the UN climate regime offers countries the chance to lead by example by including commitments to phase out fossil fuels in their nationally determined contributions or long-term climate strategies. Moreover, the financial mechanism of the UN climate regime could be drawn upon to support just energy transition projects in developing countries.

The limited progress in the UN climate negotiations on fossil fuels has sparked a campaign to develop a dedicated, legally binding fossil fuel treaty aimed at halting the expansion of fossil fuels, phasing out existing production, and ensuring a fair and equitable transition to clean energy. The campaign was initially driven by civil society organizations, but has gained support from some governments, including small island states and fossil fuel producers like Colombia and Pakistan.

Without international coordination, there is a real risk that countries will compete to extract the last drop of oil.

— Harro Van Asselt, Hatton Professor, University of Cambridge

Leading by example

However, there are major hurdles to the development of a legally binding treaty. Countries will likely be reluctant to cede sovereignty on matters of energy policy. This will make it difficult to convince major fossil fuel producers, such as Saudi Arabia and the United States, to sign such a treaty. Still, the mere existence of a fossil fuel treaty—even one that major producers have not joined—may crank up the moral pressure on reluctant countries to address the climate impacts of fossil fuel production.

Countries can also pursue a club-based approach, with a smaller group setting non-binding commitments. Examples already exist, including the Denmark-led Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, the UK/Canada-led Powering Past Coal Alliance, and a Netherlands-led initiative to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.

Such informal commitments can offer avenues for countries that are wary of entering into legally binding commitments. Another advantage of a club approach is that it can more easily accommodate participation by private sector organizations and subnational authorities—important for countries where progressive actors are held back by their governments.

A club could also adopt a regional lens: certain Arctic nations could collaborate on a joint ban on fossil fuel development in the region, building on Canada’s moratorium and the EU’s objective to leave Arctic fossil fuel resources in the ground. There will be major geopolitical obstacles to persuading the US and Russia to join such a club. Self-professed climate leaders, such as Norway, should be brought into the discussion.

International cooperation will play a vital role in ensuring a fair, equitable and effective transition away from fossil fuels. Parties to the Paris Agreement should strive to keep the issue on the agenda. While a fossil fuel treaty will undoubtedly face major obstacles along the way, informal commitments adopted through different coalitions of the willing could pave the way for the development of international rules on phasing out fossil fuels.